Sunday, January 25, 2015
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Well, THAT was a pretty viral 24 hours.
I want to address, correct, and elaborate on a few things that have come to light since my piece on how the Junior Girls were treated as US Nationals was posted yesterday.
First, I've talked to Pete Webber, who is on the USAC Cross Commission, and worked on the course at Nationals. Pete also coaches a large number of juniors, both male and female, in Boulder. From my conversation with him, it was clear to me that Pete absolutely wants the best experience for juniors of both genders in cyclocross, and has put more work into that almost anyone around here, including myself.
Pete wanted to outline a few points in USAC's defense for the events on Monday --
1) Because the course had reached ~15 minute lap times for junior girls, it makes getting race distances correct very difficult. Ordinarily there are "shortcut" options in the course that can be used to affect lap length, but these were off the table Monday because they threatened Heritage trees. Pete wanted specifically to emphasize that in spite of this difficulty, the junior race winners - Turner Ramsay (26:12), Emma White (35:43), Gage Hecht (39:24) and Scott Funston (31:00) all did the "right" number of laps for their race time.
They also did a ton of work earlier in the week to get the younger junior races correct with adding/removing shortcut sections, and they nailed all the race lengths at Boulder last year as well.
This is significant contrast to Madison, where this level of care was not taken, and the junior races were a mess due to lap lengths.
It might seem like a bit of a tangent, but the point is: we're trying, we're improving, and we're getting results. He's right.
2) Emma White got 30 UCI points for winning the girls 17-18 national championship, which is a race that
doesn't even exist in Europe yet is brand new in the US and rare in Europe. She got these points because of efforts to push the UCI toward gender equality in cyclocross, which have been mainly driven by the American and English racing scenes.
3) While the race winners were doing the correct distances, the weakest juniors were going to be finishing up to 20 minutes behind them because of the slow laps. Earlier in the week, this might have been okay, but on the compressed schedule it was a risk that the officials strongly felt the need to guard against. Therefore leaving everyone in the race to finish was not possible.
Pete and I agreed, however, that there's a massive difference between pulling someone after 17 minutes of racing versus pulling them after 40 minutes, or scoring them as they reach the finish straight because the next field is lined up or just started.
Bottom line: we talked on the phone for an hour. We both made points that the other had to admit were pretty valid. If you'd been in the conversation, you would have been satisfied.
Second, Dot Abbott, the Chief Ref posted an explanation of her reasoning for the fields being aligned how they were.
I do not agree with several aspects of it, but want to retract my pejorative of "lazy" in describing the decision making process. After seeing what variables she was trying to optimize for, I think she worked really hard to create an extremely technical solution to the problem, that would give the podium racers in all four fields the best possible race.
It was still not a good solution, it was still a sexist solution (that doesn't mean she's a sexist, but her decision can be, okay?), but it wasn't by any means lazy.
However, there are some factual inaccuracies in Dot's reasoning and justification that I just cannot let slide. I'm a data dork. Throwing numbers around that are close but not equal to the facts is totally not cool with me. The rest of this blog post is going to be kind of technical and nitpicky.
Let's look at the reasoning:
The primary deciding factor for putting their (15-16) race on course with the Men 17-18 and Women 17-18 is that the integrity of the podium would be maintained for all categories. The riders in contention for the medals would have fewer slower riders on course that they had to pass, and fewer riders that might get in their way and possibly cost them a podium spot. Any other combination would have resulted in an unfair race for the podium places in this or other categories concerned.This is the thesis behind the decision. "Any other combination would have resulted in an unfair race for the podium places in this or other categories concerned." I don't think this is true at all. I will agree that Option (A) of "all women together, then all men" from the original post would have forced both Junior Men's field leaders to deal with a lot of lapped traffic -- however I also think I can show that Option (B) ("all 15/16 then all 17/18") would have been better even by THIS criteria.
Note that this criteria has absolutely no ethic toward fairness, participation, or the message it sends about which fields are important, factors that I think absolutely should be consider at the most high-visibility event of the season, for age groups that are arguably the most impressionable in the sport.
Given that we watched the leading Junior Men laps girls on the livestream for the entire race, you have to admit that (1) putting the younger girls in with older boy caused more lapping for the boys, not less and (2) lapping really isn't as big a deal as you might think. The Junior Men's leaders lapped 30-35 girls without incident during the race.
Given the mandated course modifications, the shorter Junior course was no longer available for Monday's racing. If the Junior Women 15-16 had their own individual time on the course, the outcome of the race and number of laps for the winner would have been the same. Because they were turning 13-14 minute lap times, for the 30 minute race allocation in the USAC regulations this category would have done a total of 2 laps (winning time 26:12) rather than 3 laps (approximately 39:30).This is correct. Junior 15-16 women would have raced 2 laps, so seven of them (39%) actually got their entire race in. However, the race winner thought she was pulled from the race, and the "sprint" for third had one girl sprinting and one girl wondering why the other one was sprinting. So it's safe to say that those girls had NO IDEA how long their race was. Even if the only criteria is "give the podium contenders a fair race," this fails those criteria, since part of a fair race is knowing how long your race is.
Expecting 3 juniors fields to successfully share the course at the same time, racing 3 different distances (boys 4 laps, older girls 3 laps, younger girls 2 laps), is a recipe for disaster. Even if the numbers work on paper, it doesn't in practice.
The 6th place girl from the 17-18 race emailed me, to say that she got pulled after two laps, despite being within sight of 5th and thus in the running for the extended podium. The race was 20 minutes from ending at that point, there was no time-based reason to take her off the course, and she was less than five minutes behind Emma White -- further proof that coordinating 3 different races of 3 different durations on course at once is impossible.
For those riders turning a slower first lap, in accordance with the way the events were run throughout the week, anyone turning a first lap time that would result in a projected total race time of over 36 minutes would have been pulled from the race after the first lap. [EDIT] This accounts for riders placed 15th and farther in Women 15-16. Possibly seven women 15-16 would have been able to do one more additional lap. Significant? Yes. Worth impeding the races for the podium spots by using a different schedule? Not at a Nationals if it could be avoided.So basically, they were willing to pull people going into the final lap if they were going to finish more than 6 minutes outside the race window (30 minutes) or 10 minutes out of first place (26 minutes). Is this harsh? Yes. Is this super harsh? Yes. Could they have pulled riders at the pit, or the finish straight, so they could still ride most of the lap? Yes.
But it's also a complete red herring. The Junior 15-16 Women were on course with boys, and the winner of that race didn't even finish until the 39 minute mark. Using a time-based justification for pulling them makes no sense, as there was no way letting those girls do a second lap could have affected the race length. None of them were 80% behind their category leader (Turner Ramsay) after one lap. They were pulled so they didn't get in the boys way, period.
Putting this race after any other category possible (Men 15-16) would have meant that the Women 15-16 leader had to pass over 20 riders on her first lap.This is absolutely not true.
First, let's look at what actually happened.
The Junior Women 15-16 started roughly 20 seconds behind the Junior Women 17-18 and 1:20 behind the Junior Men 17-18. Turner Ramsay's first lap was 14:16.
There were 12 of the older Junior Women who had lap one times over 14:36, so she passed 12 women on the first lap.
There were two boys who had lap times over 15:36, so she had to pass them also. Turner Ramsay passed 14 people, total, on her first lap.
Now, in the hypothetical situation of her starting one minute behind the 15-16 men, 11 of them had a lap one time that was slower than 15:12. Turner would have had to pass only eleven boys on lap one.
I have no idea where the "over 20 riders" claim comes from. Even using the extremely narrow criteria of "minimize how much passing the leaders do," this wasn't the best solution for the 15-16 women.
Grouping Men Juniors (15-16 and 17-18) on the course together with a time gap start would have had a similar outcome, with the Men 15-16 leader going through about 19 Men 17-18 riders on his first lap. This is not what the National Championships are about.
All that being said...
Posted by Colin R at 8:51 AM
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Note: if you're a USA Cycling representative or Austin 2015 representative, and want to add a comment, rebuttal, fact, or perspective to this discussion, feel free to email me at email@example.com and I'll post it here verbatim. I fully accept that I wasn't there and don't know every issue that may have contributed to the decisions that were made. There may be an explanation for these events that I am not aware of, and if so, I would love to hear it.Important Facts Update and Hyperbole Correction - The Junior Girls 15-16 race was supposed to be 30 minutes long, so the 7 girls who made it 2 laps were not "pulled" from the race, they were removed from the course after the finished their race. Without firsthand testimony it's impossible to know how clear they were on their race duration being 2 laps shorter than the boys race happening simultaneously -- based on Turner Ramsey's quote to Cyclocross Magazine, it was certainly not a straightforward situation.
You also owe it to yourself to read the Chief Ref's statement on the matter before grabbing your torch and pitchfork.
Final Update Here: http://untilthesnowends.blogspot.com/2015/01/us-nationals-junior-girls-travesty.html
If you've been paying any attention to the world of cycling, you probably already know that Cross Nationals went full-Ice-Weasels and lost its venue on the last morning of racing.
The event was then "saved" by getting postponed to Monday at noon, which left the organizers trying to cram six races into the afternoon. The noon start time was part of the desperation deal that was struck with the "tree people" -- obviously no one in charge wanted to run all the races in the afternoon. But that was the deal they got, so that was what they had to work with.
Here's the situation. What would YOU do?
You have time for five races.
You have to run the following fields:
Elite Men, 55 starters.
Elite Women, 54 starters.
U23 Men, 69 starters.
Junior Men 17-18, 52 starters
Junior Men 15-16, 84 starters
Junior Women 17-18, 23 starters
Junior Women 15-16, 21 starters
Note that "starters" is counting everyone who had to go home because of the date change. This is based on prereg data.
It was time for some tough choices.
The decision was made to leave the two elite races and the U23 race as standalone events. This is reasonable, as they are large, marquee fields.
This leaves us with two start spots for four junior fields.
There were three possible solutions to this puzzle, all of which had some problems:
(A) Gender equality! All Junior Women run at the same time; all Junior Men run at the same time!
- problem: this puts 136 Junior Men on course at once
(B) Age equality! All 15-16 year olds run at the same time; all 17-18 year olds run at the same time!
- maybe a problem? this puts 105 15-16 year olds on course at once.
(C) Screw it, let's just try to minimize how many people are on the course at once. 15-16 men get their own start (84 men) and then everyone else goes later (17-18 M, 17-18 W, 15-16 W : 96 starters)
- problem: 18 year old boys are going to lap the everloving shit outta 15 year old girls
Which solution do you think is the best? Which do you think the organizers (USA Cycling/Cadence Sports) chose?
Who am I kidding, you already know what happened. They chose (c), because who gives a shit about the girls' race!
And guess what happened -- 11 out of 18 of the 15-16 year old women got pulled at the end of lap one.
|Junior Women 15-16 National Championship Results|
In case you're thinking "maybe they got pulled at the end of lap two, but just didn't get a finish time because they were pulled before the line," Summer Moak says you are wrong:
So a bunch of 15-16 year old girls were put in the impossible position of trying to not get lapped by 17 and 18 year old boys after spotting them a two minute head start. Over 60% of them got lapped one lap in and were pulled from the race after less than 20 minutes of racing. 100% of them got lapped by the end of lap two and were taken off the course as their "30-minute" race ended. Turner Ramsay raced 26 minutes, thought she got pulled, and then found out she won the race.
|Junior Women 17-18 National Championship Results|
Meanwhile the 17-18 girls faired quite a bit better -- they had a smaller disadvantage against the boys (starting 1 minute back) and two more years of maturity. Five of them managed to avoid getting lapped, and rode 3 laps for a "full" 35 minute race.* Nevertheless, 70% of this field was also pulled before finishing the race, even though they were being lapped by a field they cannot possibly be expected to compete with (17-18 year old men).
Ok. So in case it's not clear, Junior Women at US Cyclocross Nationals got COMPLETELY SHAT UPON by the schedule change. Faced with a tough decision, the organizers decided to utterly destroy the racing experience for the Junior Women, as well as the integrity of the competition -- note that the 3rd and 4th place riders in the 15-16 race have the same time. As in, they were riding together, and pulled off the course after two laps. Did they get to sprint? Did they know the race was ending? The race winner, Turner Ramsay said "I was so confused. I [originally] put my hands up, they rung the bell for me, I went back to sprinting, and then a lady pulled me." So not only do Junior Women who bought airfare, lodging and reshuffled their travel plans not matter, Junior Women who are racing for the podium in their own National Championships don't matter.
Protip: if you're thinking "well that sucks, but what can you do -- choices (A) and (B) weren't any better," you're what we call a "sexist dinosaur." You know how "everyone" has that racist grandparent they just know better than to talk about Obama with? That's how your kids are gonna feel about you and gender issues.
Choice (A) would have been less sexist because the 15-16 Women would have shared the course with women, not men. This is actually the "normal" schedule. Most of the 15-16 year olds don't get lapped with the schedule, and the leaders definitely don't get lapped.
Choice (B) would have been less sexist because the 15-16 Women would have been pitted against the 15-16 Men. With a smaller time gap for them (one minute back) and two years less maturity in the men, it's safe to assume that significantly more women would have finished or at least reached a second lap before getting taken out of the race.
Real talk. I know the Junior Women's fields are smaller. I know they are (typically) less competitive. I know that Turner Ramsay and Emma White beat their competition by significant margins, and would have been national champions no matter how many laps were ridden, or how many people were on the course.
THAT DOESN'T MAKE IT OKAY.
The message that was sent to teenage girls with this decision was utterly unacceptable: YOU ARE SECONDARY. There's no way a girl could participate in what effectively was the men's 17-18 national championship and feel like anything other than a sideshow. You might get to ride the course, but you're getting pulled when the boys lap you. Because let's face it, you don't really matter. You're just a girl.
Of all the schedule options, choice (C) was the most sexist. Without a doubt. Every other option would have given the 15-16 year old girls an actual race, instead of a competition where every single rider was pulled and the winner didn't know if she won. Note that men of the same age (15-16) had their race specifically preserved on a day when massive schedule compromises were made.
Even option (C), if they had left lapped riders on the course, to finish their National Championship race, would have been okay.
Seriously, let's think about this for a minute.
It's the National Championships. You have a massive number of officials as well as a national-level timing company present. The laps are so slow they are taking over ten minutes. Without question, scoring and tracking lapped riders is not a problem.
So why do lapped girls need to get taken off the course?
Because they might get in the way.
Here's the thing: tons of girls "got in the boys' way" anyway. Because when you're getting lapped on a 15-minute lap, pulling people before they get lapped is impossible. So it's not like pulling the girls is going to keep the leading boys from having to deal with traffic -- it just means they'll have to deal with a bit less traffic (in case a girl would have gotten double-lapped), and maybe the boys in the middle of the race wouldn't have to deal with any traffic (if they can't lap any girls before they're pulled).
So "pulling lapped girls" doesn't even improve the boys' podium race. The leading boys still have to lap all the girls who then get pulled, anyway. The end result of pulling 95% of the girls in the race was slightly less lapped traffic for the midpack boys to deal with, and slightly easier race scoring.
The Junior Women's National Championship, the one for 50% of the teenagers in America, was relegated to a complete and utter sideshow joke for a few trivial gains, due to lazy, sexist, and appalling decision making.
In the grand pantheon of 2015 Cyclocross National Organizational Mistakes, this was the greatest one, and the only one for which blame falls entirely and unmistakably on USA Cycling.
* Their race was 35 minutes, while the men were racing 40 minutes. So the men rode 4 laps, but these girls were presumably told on the start line they were racing one lap less than the men. Emma White posted up for the win at the end of her third lap, before any Junior 17-18 Men had finished.
Also, the initial results show 6 women finishing, but 6th place is clearly a lapped woman who was erroneously left in the race, if you compare her lap times to 7th place (Melissa Seib) who was pulled after two laps.
Posted by Colin R at 9:22 PM
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
In 2008 I put on my first bike race and talked about how much more work it was than I thought and how it was awesome.
In 2009 I wrote about how I thought the second year would be easier but it wasn't.
In 2010, we added a flyover, I lost the numbers, it got bigger, and it was even more work.
In 2011 we built a bunch of new sections and I was so exhausted it "almost wasn't worth lining up."
In 2012 we bought a flyover, spent a whole day cutting a new trail, and dropped USAC sanctioning. I was so tired I got lapped in the race.
In 2013, we LOST THE VENUE 3 weeks before the race and basically all of New England helped me put a race together. I was so cracked by race day, I didn't even race.
If programmers are good at pattern recognition, then how come I didn't see 2014 coming?
We set a new bar for insanity that I hope I will finally fail to clear in 2015: with less than 48 hours until the start of the event, we lost the venue.
A midweek nor'easter blasted Boston with buckets of rain, and the North Shore even more, and at the epicenter of the North Shore rainfall was Rowley, Massachusetts, where our race was supposed to be.
|That pink spot north of Boston is my venue.|
Still though, the race was on a hill. I knew it was going to be wet, but I thought we had some options. The landowner called me and said it was a mess. "We'll figure something out when I get there Thursday" was the plan.
|This pond near the top of the hill was so full it was actively overflowing down the hillside, 36 hours after the rain stopped.|
When I got there, the "plan" turned into "let's talk about canceling the race." The road down to the parking area was completely washed out, I had to park my car at the top of hill. The parking area itself squished audibly as you walked around it. While the landowner didn't tell me I had to cancel, he looked me square in the eye and made it clear that I'd be footing the bill to repair the damage that 400 parked/stuck cars did down there.
Thank god for Christin, who took the whole thing in stride and jumped right into scoring the next race on a screen she could barely see, with me holding the tent down every time the wind blew.
That was the only moment I thought the whole house of cards might come crumbling down. When the beginner results turned out to be mostly right (thank god for CrossMgr), I started breathing again, and the rest of the day was AWESOME.
All the following pictures are by Meg McMahon, official event photographer. Thanks for reading.
|Adam St. Germain drove 4 hours to win a hard-fought men's race.|
|Seriously, this was the best Ice Weasels race to watch yet. Jerome led early, flatted, and hit the last lap just five seconds off the leaders. Adam and Joe rode the whole lap flat out to hold Jerome off, with Adam narrowly taking the win.|
|Meanwhile, at the other end of seriousness, Russ Campbell had the most impressive cyclocross costume I've ever seen.|
|No free beer (town park!) meant a lot more food handups. I was okay with that. Here Uri Halevi fails to keep kosher.|
|Mo did what Mo does: crush the women's elite race and then crush the women's (and most of the men's) singlespeed field.|
|Meanwhile, her husband Matt raced his first cx race since 2006 in a Breaking Bad costume, complete with baggies of fake (I think) drugs to throw into the crowd.|
|A common misconception is that Ice Weasels is a party race. There's plenty of people who race first, party second, and that's exactly how I want it to be.|
|Chris Nichols jumped into the men's elite race on a mountain bike, without a number. But he got us the venue so he can do anything he wants!|
|Fat Bike Cyclocross: So wrong it's right.|
|Chris and Paul of ECV have helped us a lot over the years. Paul's punishment for not making this year's race is having to look at this picture of Chris having fun.|
|JRA Cycles sponsored the race and designed the jump. Since they're serious effing bike riders, it was a serious effing jump. Here, shop owner Brian McInnis proves he has less fear than I do.|
|Jump designer and shop employee Will makes getting rad look easy. It wasn't.|
|See what I mean? This is why we have an EMT.|
|The wind was blowing the lap cards around. Dan Walker held them in place for a few laps while I figured out a solution.|
|This year's viral photo: Sean Goguen endo'ing on Dan Barrett's custom "how to hop" barriers. Kid shoulda read the instructions.|
Posted by Colin R at 10:39 PM
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Look at this, three blog posts in a week when I should instead be planning a bike race! It's like 2009 over here!
After Tuesday's post about 2014 UCI Race Lengths, and the conclusion "men's races have gotten noticeably longer even though the rules haven't changed," I was rightfully called out for not using 2013 race lengths as a control group.
So, I started digging up that data, which got Matt interested again, which led to Matt making a really nice spreadsheet summarizing everything.
In 2013, 18/44 Men's elite races were less than an hour (41%), and the average race time was 1:21 shorter than in 2014.
The women's races were also significantly shorter (2:37 minutes shorter, 43% under 40 minutes), but this is expected since the rule about the duration of the women's race changed between 2013 and 2014.
In summary, I think it is safe to say that the women's rule change of "greater than 40 minutes" has created a bias toward "greater than 60 minutes" for the men's race as well, even though that's not the rule.
Comparing the 2013 Men's race length dataset to the 2014 Men's race data via a Student's T-test gives P less than 0.05, which is to say there's a 95% chance that this change in the year-to-year data was due to an outside factor (like a rule change) and only 5% that it is just random noise, and that the men's race length hasn't actually changed.
The full data is here.
Posted by Colin R at 9:10 AM
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Baystate Cyclocross Day 1
Day 1 was as good as it gets for cyclocross. High of 32, sun melting the snow, then the sun setting and elites racing on a freezing course that was changing every lap. The ruts had been pliable during preride became icy channels of bike-eating death. It was glorious.
The video is quite good looking, in my opinion, you should watch it.
The one time I tried to draft someone on a non-paved surface was also the one time I got eaten by a rut I didn't see and crashed. On my way to the ground, a dude who was riding next to me and probably thought I was going to keep riding in a straight line plowed his front wheel into my bars, which snapped most of my brake lever off and sent him flying over the bars.
Somehow my bike still shifted and sort of braked, even missing most of the brake lever, so we were still in business.
Riding hard was a good way to crash while not actually going faster, so I focused on riding smooth and felt like things were going pretty well ... but then I got pulled at 2 to go because Curtis White is significantly better human than me. When I realized we were getting pulled I elected not to sprint past Derrick St John, which is how you can tell he is not a scrub zone regular.
Final result: 36th/54. Last guy in the middle third!
Posted by Colin R at 8:43 AM
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
At Day 1 of Baystate Cyclocross last weekend, the elite women raced for only four laps, with the winner clocking a time of 34:47 (riding roughly 8:12 laps). In years past, this would have been worthy of an eye-roll and nothing more -- a fifth lap would have put the winning time at 43:00, which is marginally closer to the specified race length, (3 minutes long instead of 5 minutes short).
However, in 2014 the rules have changed, and in a step toward gender equality the UCI mandated that the women's race should be between 40 and 50 minutes.
My friend Matt Roy (whose wife was third in the race) noted this on twitter:
34:47 for the women's finish today at @BayStateCX. Surely the officials are up to date on the 40-50 minute rule? #mathishard...which set off a fairly spirited debate about knowing the rules, why the rules are sometimes bent, and how much sexism is a part of any of this.
— Matt Roy (@mm_racing) November 30, 2014
Matt, being a scientist, went to the trouble of looking through all the 2014 North American UCI race data to see if this was a one-off mistake or a systemic problem. He tweeted the results of his research (it's 2014, that's all we do now), but I thought it was worth capturing for posterity:
1/4 I asked a question about women’s CX race duration trends the other day and did a little data mining. I think you’ll like what you see!
— Matt Roy (@mm_racing) December 2, 2014
2/4 This is regarding updated UCI rule 5.1.048 as it pertains to duration of women's US CX races (no less than 40, no more than 50mins).
— Matt Roy (@mm_racing) December 2, 2014
3/4 Of 28 UCI races in US, 4 races were below 40min... 2 >39, 2 <39. By comparison, 2 men's <60 min (but w/in interpretation of UCI rule).
— Matt Roy (@mm_racing) December 2, 2014
4/4 I did not look prior to 2014, at non-UCI or outside of US. However, for 2014 data suggest that, for the most part, the rule is working.
— Matt Roy (@mm_racing) December 2, 2014
So in 28 women's events, the race was run short 4 times, and 2 of those were by less than 60 seconds. There have been only 2 egregiously short women's races this year (7.1%), and let's face it, getting a new rule correct 93% of the time is basically perfection, right?
The most interesting piece of data is in his third tweet:
By comparison, 2 men's under 60 min (but w/in interpretation of UCI rule).
The rule on men's race length reads as follows:
The duration of events must be as close as possible to 60 minutes for the elite men's events
Note the rule for men is not 60-70 minutes. It's "as close to 60" as possible. So a 56 minute race is better than a 65 minute race... and yet there's only been two men's races under an hour all season.
One would expect this to evenly distributed, ~14 races under an hour, 14 races over an hour, if the officials were following the "as close to 60 as possible" rule.
The only conclusion you can draw from 26/28 (93%!) of men's races running long is that the officials, having reframed their mindset to "40+ minutes" for the women, are carrying that over into "60+ minutes" for the men now.
So in case you're wondering why you got pulled more often this year, or raced 70 minutes more often this year, that's why.
Posted by Colin R at 10:17 AM